Every external force that could hit your P&L — government policy, interest rates, energy prices, currency, inflation, trade — monitored, analysed, and modelled. Model, don't panic.
Active UK macro risks affecting businesses · 10 tracked
Employer NI rate rises from 13.8% to 15% on earnings above the secondary threshold. Threshold reduced from £9,100 to £5,000. Estimated £25bn annual revenue for Treasury.
Already in effect — model and adapt now
Model Your ImpactMandatory digital record keeping and quarterly reporting for self-employed individuals and landlords with income above £50,000 (from April 2026) and £30,000 (from April 2027).
6 months to prepare — choose software and migrate records before April 2026
Model Your ImpactOBR flagged the £90,000 VAT threshold as 'anomalously high' by international standards. Treasury considering reduction to £60,000-£75,000 which would bring an estimated 200,000-400,000 additional businesses into the VAT regime.
12-18 months before likely implementation — time to model scenarios and plan pricing
Model Your ImpactGovernment announced a permanent lower business rates multiplier for retail, hospitality, and leisure properties with rateable value under £500,000. Standard multiplier rises for larger properties and online retailers.
6 months — factor into lease negotiations and location decisions now
Model Your ImpactUnfair dismissal protection from day one of employment (currently 2 years). Statutory probation period of 9 months proposed. Major change to hiring risk calculations for employers.
9-12 months — review hiring processes, update contracts, train managers before Royal Assent
Model Your ImpactHMRC implementing OECD Crypto-Asset Reporting Framework (CARF). All UK crypto service providers must report customer transactions. Individual self-reporting requirements tightened.
18+ months — long runway but start planning data infrastructure now
MPC voted 8-1 to hold the base rate at 4.5% in March 2026. Markets pricing two cuts by year-end (to 4.0%). Every 0.25pp cut reduces debt servicing costs for variable-rate borrowers and potentially weakens GBP.
Next MPC decision: May 2026. If you have variable-rate debt, model both scenarios now.
Model Your ImpactEnergy price cap expected to rise ~8% for Q3 2026 (July-September) due to wholesale gas price increases. Business energy contracts not capped but wholesale prices feed through. Ofgem publishes quarterly.
3 months — lock in fixed energy contracts before July, or budget for the increase now.
Sterling trading at $1.26, down from $1.34 in Jan 2026. A weaker pound increases costs for any business importing goods, materials, or services priced in USD. US tariff uncertainty and UK growth downgrades are driving the move.
Ongoing — if you import in USD, consider forward contracts or price adjustments now. Every month of delay at current rates costs ~0.5% extra.
National Living Wage (21+) rises from £11.44 to £12.21/hr from April 2026, a 6.7% increase. 18-20 rate rises to £10.00. Combined with the employer NI increase, this is a double hit on labour-intensive businesses.
Already enacted. If you employ NLW staff, the cost increase hits payroll from April. Adjust pricing or staffing now.
Plug in your numbers. See the impact on your business. Know exactly when you need to act — and what it costs if you wait.
Model the cost of the NI rate increase per employee, per department, and across your whole workforce.
See what happens to your margins if the threshold drops to £60K, £70K, or £75K. Model pricing adjustments.
Estimate the total cost of Making Tax Digital: software, training, accountant fees, and quarterly filing time.
Calculate whether your premises qualify for the lower multiplier and how much you save (or lose) under reform.
Data sourced directly from
All data from official UK government and regulatory sources under Open Government Licence v3. Updated daily.